48 Forecast The so-called green package adopted by the European Union in December 2008 will also affect our industry's future devel- opment. Its targets for 2020 are for Europe to: · reduce its greenhouse-gas emissions by 20 percent · enhance its energy efficiency by 20 percent · expand renewables so that they meet 20 percent of total energy consumption. Substantial uncertainty currently surrounds forecasts of car- bon allowance prices due to the decision to auction all allow- ances and the numerous exceptions to this rule.The long-term development of allowance prices will be determined primarily by the way emissions trading is handled on a global scale. Industry observers are forecasting a stabilization of energy prices, which recently declined in the wake of the financial and economic crisis. The International Energy Agency made a significant upward correction to its long-term oil price projec- tion compared with last year. The reason for the correction is that oil price increases of the last three years have not had the same negative impact on the global economy that they had in the 1980s. Natural gas and oil products are competing fuels in many applications, so their prices will likely continue to move in tandem in the future. As for coal, increased pro- duction in conjunction with increased demand is expected to result in stable price development over the long term, leading to a wider spread between coal and oil prices. Supported by a variety of European subsidy programs, renew- ables play an increasingly important role and deliver a con- tinually increasing share of the energy supply. Binding EU and member-state targets for expanding renewables place demands on system integration that are becoming a growing challenge for the energy industry. Macroeconomic Situation The German Council of Economic Experts ("GCEE") expects a slight recovery for the global economy in 2010, although with no signs of dynamic growth on the medium-term horizon. The financial sector's problems remain unsolved, hindering a stable and sustained upward trend. The GCEE expects sup- port to come from government spending programs and robust growth in emerging economies. Economic recovery in the United States is expected to be hesi- tant in 2010. The GCEE anticipates a moderate recovery for the EU27. Automatic stabilization mechanisms will continue to offer support, whereas the labor-market situation is expected to worsen. Real-estate markets will also hamper economic growth. Gross domestic product in the EU27 is expected to be flat or slightly positive in real terms. The financial crisis will continue to be particularly hard for Eastern European countries. Russia's economy is expected to recover, albeit slowly, thanks to expansionary fiscal policies and rising fuel prices. Due to the economic recovery and energy prices, inflation in the United States and the EU will no longer be trending lower but is instead expected to increase slightly. Energy Industry The future development of Germany's energy industry will be determined in part by the new federal government's com- mitment to move forward with the previous government's Integrated Climate Protection and Energy Package. It remains the aim of the federal government to substantially alter Germany's energy mix, which would have considerable con- sequences for our business. The policy's targets for 2020 are for Germany to: · derive at least 30 percent of its electricity from renewable sources · derive 25 percent from cogeneration · achieve an additional reduction in electricity consumption by up to 11 percent. To bolster competition law, the German federal government intends to amend the Law against Barriers to Competition ("GWB"). Plans call for it to contain a provision granting regu- lators the authority, as a final option, to break up companies that have a dominant market position.